Following an initial drop in resident enrolments in 2014 the college enrolments stabilised in 2015 and recovered slightly in 2016. The most recent increase from 2015 to 2016 was 1.7 percent. This was lower than the population growth of about 2.1 percent, but not enough to reduce per capita enrolments and market share. These 2016 gains were facilitated by an improvement in catchment participation rates in late 2015, especially in the minor catchment.
The enrolment weighted SES scores in the major catchment have grown from 102.2 in 2013 to 103.4 in 2016 and this has increased leverage from a high 7.1 points in 2013 to a level of 8.7 points. Leverage in the minor catchment over the same period has risen from 8.1 to 11.7.
The affordability table infers this sort of increase in leverage is due mainly to SJAC fees being too far above the local average, holding back per capita enrolment growth as lower SES parents depart, but lifting the SES scores from the remaining professional families who can afford the higher fees. Lower average P-12 fees closer to those of competing local schools could attract and retain more mainstream local parents.
Enrolment change by SA1 since 2013 was correlated with the targeting map to levels of significance well above 99.9 percent confidence levels – in other words the ADS model correctly identified areas of potential growth at Westlake/Jindalee/Sinnamon Park as well as areas at risk of decline closer to the college’s two campuses.
|SES SCORES||Average Est SES Scores||Enrolment Weighted SES||Leverage|
|Estimated School SES||104.97|
|AFFORDABILITY||$ p.a. (%)|
|Fees, charges and parent contributions*||$8,914|
|Pred. Annual Ave. Fees Paid at all Ind. Schools||$8,159|
*SOURCE: MYSCHOOL ** SOURCE: ADS
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